* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 67 72 77 80 82 87 88 86 78 69 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 67 72 77 80 82 87 88 86 78 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 67 71 77 79 77 72 66 57 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 8 12 14 21 36 45 43 46 26 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 344 256 233 234 223 215 230 227 227 218 212 211 168 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.1 23.5 21.8 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 145 141 131 125 115 107 95 83 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 122 121 122 123 114 108 99 92 81 71 68 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.9 4.6 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 52 51 51 49 47 48 44 48 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 29 31 33 38 45 51 54 50 46 850 MB ENV VOR 92 91 93 78 81 70 51 62 111 168 200 237 226 200 MB DIV 38 36 23 31 52 87 68 80 107 85 42 20 11 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 7 6 13 13 8 -6 -9 0 -5 14 LAND (KM) 922 964 1009 1042 1077 1056 1053 957 836 750 640 522 511 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.6 29.0 30.4 32.9 35.1 37.1 39.0 41.0 42.0 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.1 66.4 66.6 66.9 66.3 64.9 63.0 60.3 57.6 54.9 53.5 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 11 13 14 14 14 11 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 33 31 30 17 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 23. 30. 33. 28. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 32. 34. 32. 23. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.1 65.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.36 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 29.2% 21.5% 18.1% 14.5% 19.5% 15.5% Logistic: 11.5% 19.1% 12.8% 7.7% 0.0% 2.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 9.9% 9.0% 5.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 11.0% 19.1% 13.3% 9.2% 5.2% 7.5% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 67 72 77 80 82 87 88 86 78 69 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 67 72 75 77 82 83 81 73 64 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 59 64 67 69 74 75 73 65 56 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 55 58 60 65 66 64 56 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT