* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 62 70 74 80 82 85 88 85 78 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 62 70 74 80 82 85 88 85 78 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 60 68 73 74 72 66 60 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 3 7 10 16 27 37 46 41 30 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 0 5 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 351 339 268 226 239 206 226 221 227 222 213 223 196 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.5 25.6 24.0 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 148 143 137 130 121 113 99 86 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 124 123 124 123 118 114 106 98 85 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 53 54 54 51 50 50 48 50 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 31 32 37 41 47 52 53 49 850 MB ENV VOR 88 87 91 90 78 67 59 61 76 142 168 212 221 200 MB DIV 31 37 33 25 27 88 69 85 77 104 58 16 24 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 7 7 11 18 11 -5 3 -8 0 -3 LAND (KM) 902 931 961 976 992 1085 1038 1077 939 817 684 544 544 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.2 29.6 31.3 33.3 35.6 38.1 40.6 41.8 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.9 66.6 65.9 64.3 61.6 58.6 55.6 53.9 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 8 10 14 17 17 13 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 36 36 36 26 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -10. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 19. 25. 32. 31. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 24. 30. 32. 35. 38. 35. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.9 65.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.42 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.8% 12.1% 11.8% 9.7% 10.6% 18.0% Logistic: 4.4% 13.4% 8.1% 3.8% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 11.4% 7.2% 5.3% 3.3% 4.2% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 62 70 74 80 82 85 88 85 78 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 59 67 71 77 79 82 85 82 75 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 61 65 71 73 76 79 76 69 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 52 56 62 64 67 70 67 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT