* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 60 66 72 75 78 81 85 84 78 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 60 66 72 75 78 81 85 84 78 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 57 64 72 73 71 66 62 54 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 1 6 12 20 33 48 43 37 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 -2 4 3 2 3 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 33 357 357 172 221 221 214 229 228 227 220 191 206 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.0 24.8 22.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 147 147 145 141 133 126 117 106 90 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 124 124 124 124 121 115 110 103 91 77 70 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 55 52 48 48 46 46 46 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 25 28 31 33 38 43 50 53 51 850 MB ENV VOR 94 85 88 92 92 89 71 57 62 90 150 170 167 200 MB DIV 33 31 27 28 36 52 92 53 76 95 71 66 13 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 6 5 6 14 15 6 -12 0 4 -3 LAND (KM) 888 910 933 951 970 1058 1034 1038 1041 874 733 582 489 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.8 30.5 32.4 34.3 36.8 39.5 41.5 42.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.8 66.5 65.3 63.1 60.1 56.7 54.6 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 7 9 12 15 18 16 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 34 37 37 30 17 13 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -8. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 29. 32. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 25. 28. 31. 35. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.6 65.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.42 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.9% 12.1% 12.0% 9.8% 14.3% 19.7% Logistic: 4.3% 16.6% 10.7% 5.3% 0.0% 3.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 13.6% 8.3% 5.9% 3.4% 5.8% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 56 60 66 72 75 78 81 85 84 78 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 58 64 70 73 76 79 83 82 76 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 52 58 64 67 70 73 77 76 70 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 56 59 62 65 69 68 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT