* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 60 66 73 78 80 81 85 89 82 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 60 66 73 78 80 81 85 89 82 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 55 61 69 74 75 71 67 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 13 10 9 4 10 14 27 38 45 39 35 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 4 7 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 30 24 2 340 284 248 208 222 225 235 221 207 212 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.6 25.4 24.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 148 147 148 144 138 131 123 111 100 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 125 125 123 124 123 120 114 109 97 85 76 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 56 55 53 49 47 50 46 49 45 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 24 25 27 30 33 36 40 48 55 53 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 89 96 100 97 86 74 59 96 135 177 207 200 MB DIV 37 28 24 28 39 28 86 69 82 65 120 85 34 700-850 TADV 9 3 3 3 5 8 10 18 13 5 -1 -12 -2 LAND (KM) 836 874 907 926 947 977 1084 1037 1115 966 824 709 544 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.0 29.3 31.0 32.9 35.4 38.2 40.4 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.5 65.7 66.0 66.4 66.7 66.9 66.1 64.2 61.4 57.9 55.1 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 3 5 8 11 15 18 17 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 31 35 38 37 28 13 12 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -6. -11. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 28. 36. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 35. 39. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.0 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.43 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 220.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.5% 11.8% 11.4% 9.1% 10.5% 19.8% Logistic: 3.0% 15.9% 9.6% 4.6% 0.0% 3.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 3.5% 12.8% 7.6% 5.4% 3.1% 4.6% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 60 66 73 78 80 81 85 89 82 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 58 64 71 76 78 79 83 87 80 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 59 66 71 73 74 78 82 75 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 57 62 64 65 69 73 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT