* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 54 60 67 74 74 75 76 81 81 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 54 60 67 74 74 75 76 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 48 48 49 54 61 68 71 70 67 63 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 12 10 10 7 11 21 30 41 48 50 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 3 8 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 20 35 35 8 357 260 247 220 231 230 230 222 217 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.5 25.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 149 149 149 148 143 136 129 121 112 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 128 126 125 125 125 123 118 112 104 97 91 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 56 53 50 47 48 48 45 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 24 27 29 32 32 35 40 49 53 850 MB ENV VOR 65 77 92 93 95 100 88 84 81 61 112 173 208 200 MB DIV 21 39 30 32 29 25 48 79 52 66 85 100 38 700-850 TADV 10 7 2 1 2 5 8 9 15 5 1 -15 -5 LAND (KM) 771 819 860 880 903 933 999 1078 1078 1100 958 885 815 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.5 28.3 29.7 31.5 33.5 35.6 37.6 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.4 65.5 65.8 66.0 66.5 67.0 66.6 65.3 63.4 61.0 58.0 54.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 9 12 14 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 33 33 35 38 36 25 14 6 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 7. 11. 17. 27. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 24. 24. 25. 26. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.8% 10.6% 10.0% 7.7% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.4% 6.0% 3.1% 0.0% 1.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 9.8% 5.8% 4.4% 2.6% 3.9% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 50 51 54 60 67 74 74 75 76 81 81 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 54 60 67 74 74 75 76 81 81 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 50 56 63 70 70 71 72 77 77 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 56 63 63 64 65 70 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT