* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 58 65 72 80 84 89 90 94 93 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 58 65 72 80 84 89 90 94 93 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 58 66 75 82 85 84 78 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 20 11 10 3 9 6 14 27 41 49 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 4 5 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 10 20 33 34 8 11 250 216 232 234 239 224 217 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.4 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 157 157 157 154 150 142 131 120 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 138 136 133 131 132 129 128 125 116 106 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 59 59 55 56 56 60 57 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 25 27 29 31 35 39 48 54 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 73 91 77 89 84 82 80 66 77 130 189 200 MB DIV 7 18 42 28 24 52 29 77 69 79 87 115 57 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 1 1 2 5 8 18 19 11 -18 -9 LAND (KM) 704 754 803 849 883 899 943 1026 1109 1143 1130 959 895 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 30.9 33.5 36.1 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.3 65.5 65.6 66.1 66.5 66.5 66.2 64.9 62.8 59.7 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 7 13 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 37 34 32 36 38 32 26 17 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 17. 27. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 17. 25. 29. 34. 35. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.8 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.29 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.49 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.5% 9.4% 9.0% 6.3% 9.3% 17.2% Logistic: 0.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 6.8% 3.8% 3.1% 2.1% 3.3% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 56 58 65 72 80 84 89 90 94 93 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 57 64 71 79 83 88 89 93 92 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 61 68 76 80 85 86 90 89 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 61 69 73 78 79 83 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT