* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 60 61 69 75 82 84 86 87 84 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 60 61 69 75 82 84 86 87 84 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 57 57 59 64 73 80 86 88 83 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 25 20 11 11 1 7 11 19 37 49 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 3 3 0 1 -1 1 2 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 10 13 21 38 27 10 253 237 214 237 226 228 223 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 163 163 161 159 157 157 155 149 138 128 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 141 140 137 134 132 132 130 129 122 113 105 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 60 60 59 58 58 57 59 55 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 25 22 25 23 27 30 33 34 39 46 51 850 MB ENV VOR 49 58 64 76 86 79 87 82 86 84 77 96 138 200 MB DIV 34 11 21 44 45 31 34 59 72 56 85 98 60 700-850 TADV 10 12 13 10 4 2 5 5 9 16 15 -12 -22 LAND (KM) 626 675 724 774 823 859 904 957 1023 1134 1151 1122 1100 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.8 32.0 34.0 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.9 66.2 66.4 66.6 65.8 64.2 61.1 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 10 15 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 53 46 41 38 36 35 37 37 33 19 24 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 21. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 14. 20. 27. 29. 31. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.1 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.1% 10.6% 10.0% 7.2% 9.5% 17.2% Logistic: 1.7% 4.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.1% 4.5% 3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/10/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 57 60 61 69 75 82 84 86 87 84 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 58 59 67 73 80 82 84 85 82 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 54 55 63 69 76 78 80 81 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 49 57 63 70 72 74 75 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT