* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 58 59 62 67 71 79 80 79 76 75 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 58 59 62 67 71 79 80 79 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 57 57 59 64 69 72 71 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 26 26 20 12 3 12 19 27 37 50 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 2 4 2 3 2 -3 0 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 7 11 14 20 33 4 4 239 216 224 216 224 227 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 163 163 161 158 156 153 149 141 132 124 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 139 140 138 134 131 128 126 122 114 107 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 58 59 57 54 50 47 44 43 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 21 23 22 23 25 26 31 32 35 38 44 850 MB ENV VOR 28 53 58 56 74 72 81 69 74 73 74 75 114 200 MB DIV 66 41 10 26 43 30 37 35 65 59 84 67 100 700-850 TADV 9 9 13 13 11 3 4 5 7 9 8 3 -16 LAND (KM) 626 665 703 747 792 894 952 1014 1137 1162 1161 1086 1121 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.6 27.4 28.1 29.2 30.7 32.9 34.4 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.8 66.0 65.7 64.8 63.3 60.9 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 7 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 48 43 40 37 30 31 30 21 16 9 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 10. 12. 15. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 12. 16. 24. 25. 24. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.1 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 221.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.1% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 15.3% Logistic: 2.5% 3.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 3.7% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 58 59 62 67 71 79 80 79 76 75 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 56 59 64 68 76 77 76 73 72 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 56 61 65 73 74 73 70 69 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 49 54 58 66 67 66 63 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT