* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 54 57 59 63 68 71 72 68 65 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 54 57 59 63 68 71 72 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 52 52 50 50 52 57 62 64 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 27 27 14 11 4 12 21 31 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 0 2 5 5 4 2 4 6 9 5 SHEAR DIR 5 13 15 16 26 29 18 264 231 210 213 217 225 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 163 163 158 156 152 153 148 139 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 141 141 140 135 132 127 129 127 122 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 61 59 58 53 49 46 43 40 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 48 64 61 93 91 92 73 75 76 70 87 200 MB DIV 46 63 32 7 14 42 29 21 40 54 43 67 55 700-850 TADV 6 8 8 10 13 4 3 5 7 5 5 0 3 LAND (KM) 614 630 647 698 749 859 941 1002 1043 1126 1142 1122 1058 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.8 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.5 29.8 31.8 33.8 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.4 65.8 66.3 65.9 64.4 61.9 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 5 5 5 4 4 5 9 13 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 54 52 49 44 40 32 27 28 30 20 24 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 21. 22. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.0 65.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 209.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% Logistic: 2.2% 3.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.3% 3.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 54 54 57 59 63 68 71 72 68 65 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 55 57 61 66 69 70 66 63 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 50 52 56 61 64 65 61 58 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 43 45 49 54 57 58 54 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT