* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 48 54 59 66 68 70 69 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 48 54 59 66 68 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 39 38 39 43 47 51 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 30 29 27 21 12 3 14 21 34 37 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 6 3 2 4 4 3 0 -1 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 4 7 16 14 16 44 9 24 241 224 229 225 236 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 164 165 162 158 154 154 149 141 131 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 139 139 141 140 135 130 129 128 122 114 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 60 61 60 60 56 53 48 49 45 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 21 20 21 23 24 26 29 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 22 6 18 53 66 82 77 83 68 67 50 50 59 200 MB DIV 16 32 49 25 7 36 24 30 43 61 52 86 53 700-850 TADV 5 6 9 6 6 10 2 3 7 8 10 5 4 LAND (KM) 645 651 656 684 711 817 912 985 1040 1087 1069 1114 1031 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.9 27.0 27.9 28.6 29.8 31.7 33.4 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.6 65.8 66.2 66.7 66.4 65.3 63.3 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 6 5 4 5 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 48 44 42 36 32 33 31 22 14 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 14. 21. 23. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.3 65.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 203.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 45 48 54 59 66 68 70 69 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 45 48 54 59 66 68 70 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 42 45 51 56 63 65 67 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 39 45 50 57 59 61 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT