* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 48 46 50 51 56 61 65 67 65 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 48 46 50 51 56 61 65 67 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 43 40 38 38 39 43 48 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 32 34 29 27 30 15 17 4 11 30 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 12 7 6 3 3 7 3 3 -2 0 1 8 SHEAR DIR 9 1 13 19 16 34 31 25 319 248 223 229 225 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 163 164 164 160 156 155 150 141 132 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 136 137 140 141 137 131 131 129 121 114 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 52 54 59 60 57 57 55 53 52 47 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 23 20 22 22 23 24 27 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 6 27 54 68 108 102 113 89 81 61 52 200 MB DIV 40 23 29 49 29 -1 40 23 38 45 73 60 67 700-850 TADV -4 7 8 10 4 6 7 -1 6 2 5 7 7 LAND (KM) 678 661 644 656 667 751 859 942 1010 1138 1073 1109 1041 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.4 24.5 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.1 29.5 31.6 33.3 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 66.1 66.0 65.3 63.6 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 2 5 5 4 6 9 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 49 48 46 39 34 31 31 23 15 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 5. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.6 65.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/09/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 48 46 50 51 56 61 65 67 65 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 46 44 48 49 54 59 63 65 63 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 43 41 45 46 51 56 60 62 60 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 35 39 40 45 50 54 56 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT