* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 30 30 28 29 27 31 33 41 44 51 53 V (KT) LAND 35 31 30 30 28 29 27 31 33 41 44 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 25 23 20 18 16 16 16 18 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 45 39 33 38 34 34 16 13 13 21 32 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 9 3 0 5 5 4 4 5 8 4 SHEAR DIR 3 5 6 1 3 18 25 8 352 276 254 239 237 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 162 163 164 164 161 157 154 153 147 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 140 136 136 140 142 138 134 128 127 125 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 51 53 59 54 52 46 43 41 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 21 19 20 19 21 20 22 22 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 3 7 20 19 4 54 79 125 125 139 130 120 118 200 MB DIV -7 30 39 23 29 17 1 25 11 4 44 46 42 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -6 4 7 7 6 7 3 3 1 5 8 LAND (KM) 766 717 667 661 655 684 772 886 1013 1039 974 946 1029 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.7 25.7 27.0 28.4 29.4 30.0 31.3 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8 66.0 66.1 66.4 66.9 67.4 67.7 67.0 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 2 0 1 3 6 7 6 4 5 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 47 47 48 45 38 39 34 31 29 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 4. 3. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -8. -4. -2. 6. 9. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 246.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 30 30 28 29 27 31 33 41 44 51 53 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 31 32 30 34 36 44 47 54 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 29 30 28 32 34 42 45 52 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 24 22 26 28 36 39 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT