* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 37 37 40 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 37 37 40 43 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 35 31 28 25 23 22 22 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 46 44 38 39 38 36 27 26 13 28 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -2 5 6 0 2 8 2 1 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 359 360 2 1 359 8 10 22 349 301 259 233 234 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 161 161 163 162 159 152 149 144 139 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 136 136 139 139 136 129 126 121 116 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 46 49 55 53 56 57 56 48 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 18 30 21 21 94 122 124 122 93 72 54 200 MB DIV -21 -18 41 62 29 40 10 25 9 20 2 44 48 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 7 10 10 12 3 5 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 841 786 728 711 693 734 816 913 1044 1110 1018 965 939 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.9 24.7 25.1 26.0 27.1 28.4 29.8 31.2 32.7 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.3 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.6 65.8 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.0 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 1 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 42 43 45 40 36 35 28 21 12 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -5. -2. -1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 65.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 369.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 37 37 40 43 44 45 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 41 40 39 39 39 42 45 46 47 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 37 37 40 43 44 45 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 31 31 31 34 37 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT