* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 42 43 42 42 43 46 48 53 59 61 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 42 43 42 42 43 46 48 53 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 39 36 32 29 26 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 40 43 40 38 41 32 34 24 20 27 40 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -12 -3 -1 0 2 3 6 6 5 7 8 7 8 SHEAR DIR 359 354 358 3 354 6 9 18 8 330 266 246 234 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 161 159 162 161 160 155 153 150 144 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 136 134 138 138 137 131 129 127 121 115 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 40 43 51 54 50 50 44 38 32 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 17 20 21 21 22 22 21 23 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 0 17 16 16 31 17 84 124 147 154 146 146 130 200 MB DIV -14 -9 21 48 31 15 8 16 7 22 1 13 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 -4 11 16 13 12 4 2 -1 -12 LAND (KM) 899 854 806 774 742 738 802 883 985 1086 1014 933 942 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.8 26.8 27.9 29.0 30.2 31.7 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.9 65.2 65.7 66.0 66.2 66.6 67.0 66.9 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 1 3 4 6 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 37 39 42 41 36 36 33 29 22 11 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -24. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 9. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 3. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.6 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 420.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 46 44 42 43 42 42 43 46 48 53 59 61 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 46 45 45 46 49 51 56 62 64 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 45 44 44 45 48 50 55 61 63 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 40 41 44 46 51 57 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT