* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 47 42 42 40 43 44 45 49 53 61 66 V (KT) LAND 55 49 47 42 42 40 43 44 45 49 53 61 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 45 43 41 37 33 30 27 25 25 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 40 40 44 41 43 39 32 28 19 5 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 -3 0 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 356 351 352 359 354 359 2 4 11 350 311 245 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 161 162 162 161 158 155 150 145 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 134 137 137 136 138 137 135 132 128 123 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 41 43 50 54 56 64 68 66 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 18 20 21 24 24 24 23 23 25 30 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -9 13 8 13 30 26 79 119 95 79 67 66 200 MB DIV 6 -12 8 -2 22 -4 43 9 33 21 57 49 93 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -3 0 -2 9 17 13 7 1 2 6 5 LAND (KM) 956 923 882 834 787 740 757 816 898 999 1127 1043 1026 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.3 26.0 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.9 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.8 65.0 65.5 65.8 65.9 66.1 66.3 66.1 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 30 35 39 41 39 36 34 32 25 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -27. -25. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 4. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 7. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -13. -13. -15. -12. -11. -10. -6. -2. 6. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.2 65.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 473.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 49 47 42 42 40 43 44 45 49 53 61 66 18HR AGO 55 54 52 47 47 45 48 49 50 54 58 66 71 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 46 44 47 48 49 53 57 65 70 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 46 47 48 52 56 64 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT