* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 51 47 44 42 39 40 39 43 46 50 53 V (KT) LAND 65 57 51 47 44 42 39 40 39 43 46 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 50 48 45 41 35 30 26 23 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 42 39 46 47 38 45 39 42 28 16 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -7 -5 -2 6 3 2 5 9 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 345 356 352 355 359 356 9 11 15 14 347 271 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 154 157 158 160 162 162 162 158 155 150 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 127 130 134 135 135 136 138 139 135 131 127 121 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 44 42 42 40 47 52 57 55 64 65 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 17 18 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -35 -10 16 3 38 22 61 101 153 126 108 94 200 MB DIV -15 -3 -18 -17 -18 28 9 31 10 14 48 49 56 700-850 TADV -1 1 -4 -3 -2 -3 10 10 10 13 -1 3 4 LAND (KM) 1009 982 956 900 842 776 749 775 834 926 1044 1071 1009 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.2 25.5 26.3 27.4 28.6 29.8 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.8 64.8 65.2 65.7 66.0 66.4 66.6 66.6 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 6 5 2 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 28 35 40 40 37 36 38 31 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. -33. -33. -30. -26. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 3. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -25. -26. -22. -19. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.7 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.04 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 555.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 57 51 47 44 42 39 40 39 43 46 50 53 18HR AGO 65 64 58 54 51 49 46 47 46 50 53 57 60 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 54 52 49 50 49 53 56 60 63 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 47 48 47 51 54 58 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT