* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 75 70 65 58 52 48 48 48 50 54 60 V (KT) LAND 85 81 75 70 65 58 52 48 48 48 50 54 60 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 82 78 75 68 60 52 45 38 33 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 37 35 37 43 47 41 44 38 25 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -6 -6 -1 2 1 -2 5 6 6 4 1 4 SHEAR DIR 347 347 356 354 345 352 6 17 14 11 352 326 270 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 155 155 159 160 163 162 161 159 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 126 128 130 131 134 135 139 138 136 133 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 43 42 42 48 54 54 58 62 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 20 20 19 21 22 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -45 -33 -12 4 12 23 39 127 159 152 145 111 200 MB DIV -41 -13 1 -28 -26 8 -33 47 35 40 46 36 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -3 -3 0 1 13 20 22 11 6 4 LAND (KM) 980 966 951 926 894 823 773 784 826 887 941 1013 968 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.6 26.4 27.2 27.8 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.6 65.0 65.7 66.4 66.9 67.2 67.7 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 3 3 3 3 2 4 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 28 31 38 41 40 41 43 42 40 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -20. -28. -34. -35. -35. -34. -28. -22. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -20. -27. -33. -37. -37. -37. -35. -31. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.4 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.13 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 704.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 2.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 2( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 75 70 65 58 52 48 48 48 50 54 60 18HR AGO 85 84 78 73 68 61 55 51 51 51 53 57 63 12HR AGO 85 82 81 76 71 64 58 54 54 54 56 60 66 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 63 57 53 53 53 55 59 65 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 53 49 49 49 51 55 61 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT