* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 85 80 76 67 65 58 56 55 55 58 64 V (KT) LAND 90 89 85 80 76 67 65 58 56 55 55 58 64 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 92 89 86 79 71 62 53 48 42 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 30 28 29 41 41 43 34 39 24 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -9 -2 2 5 3 1 3 7 6 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 341 348 347 348 342 349 357 11 12 17 8 349 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 153 154 155 155 157 159 161 161 158 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 128 129 129 129 132 135 136 136 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 46 44 42 47 50 54 55 62 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 18 19 24 22 23 24 24 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -57 -42 -29 -11 10 22 26 77 134 170 125 101 200 MB DIV -27 -35 -15 8 -30 5 13 -7 16 23 22 31 51 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 -5 -1 -6 8 11 12 9 0 4 LAND (KM) 980 977 975 959 939 876 847 841 840 856 908 999 988 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.4 28.4 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.3 65.1 65.0 64.7 64.5 64.9 65.7 66.4 66.9 67.4 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 3 4 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 25 26 33 37 37 37 41 42 39 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -29. -30. -29. -27. -22. -16. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -14. -23. -25. -32. -34. -35. -35. -32. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.4 65.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.06 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 716.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 5.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 5( 25) 3( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 85 80 76 67 65 58 56 55 55 58 64 18HR AGO 90 89 85 80 76 67 65 58 56 55 55 58 64 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 77 68 66 59 57 56 56 59 65 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 67 65 58 56 55 55 58 64 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 60 53 51 50 50 53 59 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 66 64 57 55 54 54 57 63 IN 12HR 90 89 85 76 70 66 64 57 55 54 54 57 63