* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 69 68 64 59 58 52 51 47 50 54 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 69 68 64 59 58 52 51 47 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 74 73 72 67 63 57 49 41 35 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 27 30 34 32 44 45 46 37 35 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -8 -6 0 -1 2 4 6 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 354 346 349 349 349 333 348 1 16 12 11 1 318 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 151 148 150 153 155 157 155 154 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 126 124 122 125 128 129 131 129 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 56 53 52 45 43 46 50 54 56 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 18 18 20 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -110 -99 -70 -51 -34 0 14 26 15 35 33 54 44 200 MB DIV -19 -13 -33 -48 -22 -13 -19 -30 -9 26 8 12 17 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 1 1 -2 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 909 946 981 995 1009 988 916 889 889 917 966 1065 1079 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.6 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.6 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.9 65.0 65.0 65.0 64.6 64.3 64.6 65.3 65.7 65.7 66.0 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 1 1 3 2 2 3 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 23 22 21 20 28 32 33 34 32 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -19. -23. -27. -28. -27. -24. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -12. -18. -19. -23. -20. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.6 64.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.25 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 502.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.0% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 71 69 68 64 59 58 52 51 47 50 54 18HR AGO 70 69 69 67 66 62 57 56 50 49 45 48 52 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 59 54 53 47 46 42 45 49 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 55 50 49 43 42 38 41 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT