* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 61 61 61 58 57 49 43 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 61 61 61 58 57 49 43 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 64 63 63 61 56 48 39 32 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 21 20 23 30 40 45 49 41 34 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 5 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 3 357 351 351 346 341 342 350 16 26 8 4 321 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 150 150 150 153 155 156 153 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 129 125 122 126 125 128 130 132 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 57 55 58 59 58 53 47 45 44 45 40 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 13 14 15 18 15 14 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -107 -104 -89 -64 -43 -24 -15 -14 -42 -30 -26 -15 -24 200 MB DIV -20 -3 3 -6 -15 17 -23 -9 -48 -17 -16 -18 -19 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 1 -3 -6 -9 -5 -10 0 0 LAND (KM) 869 929 980 987 995 1019 971 916 885 922 1026 1086 1153 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.9 28.1 28.7 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.8 65.2 65.3 65.5 65.0 64.3 64.3 64.9 65.4 65.7 65.7 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 2 0 3 3 2 2 4 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 27 22 24 25 19 23 31 34 30 26 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -26. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -11. -17. -23. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.2 64.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.41 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.37 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 373.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.3% 10.0% 9.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 61 61 61 58 57 49 43 37 37 37 18HR AGO 60 59 60 59 59 59 56 55 47 41 35 35 35 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 55 52 51 43 37 31 31 31 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 50 47 46 38 32 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT