* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 63 63 63 61 60 58 55 45 40 36 37 V (KT) LAND 60 63 63 63 63 61 60 58 55 45 40 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 66 65 63 61 58 50 41 33 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 26 25 25 37 36 44 45 48 34 31 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -9 -3 -4 -1 0 4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 356 359 358 358 348 353 342 353 1 27 25 13 2 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 152 150 149 148 147 149 150 151 147 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 133 129 124 123 124 122 123 126 127 124 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 58 60 57 50 44 45 44 44 48 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 13 15 16 18 15 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -104 -106 -86 -59 -33 -6 -13 -1 -23 -5 13 9 200 MB DIV -16 -11 -8 -1 -10 -1 -15 -12 -28 -36 -21 -7 -22 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -6 -13 -5 -8 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 828 887 951 985 1014 1033 1013 988 964 988 1024 1123 1215 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.9 28.9 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.4 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.1 64.4 64.0 64.1 64.6 65.3 65.3 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 2 1 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 34 24 22 21 18 18 23 25 20 21 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -28. -27. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -15. -20. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 63.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.14 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 356.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 14.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 4.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 63 63 63 61 60 58 55 45 40 36 37 18HR AGO 60 59 59 59 59 57 56 54 51 41 36 32 33 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 54 53 51 48 38 33 29 30 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 47 45 42 32 27 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT