* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 56 57 55 54 47 41 38 39 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 55 56 57 55 54 47 41 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 53 52 52 51 48 41 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 26 26 25 31 32 45 40 48 39 29 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -3 -5 0 -5 0 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 355 354 359 357 357 347 337 339 351 11 25 15 5 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 155 152 148 145 146 147 149 146 143 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 137 133 128 122 121 122 123 125 124 120 116 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 57 59 58 55 50 50 51 51 54 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 12 14 15 18 17 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -94 -87 -101 -106 -86 -35 -14 -10 1 -13 -33 -26 -17 200 MB DIV -26 -14 -4 -2 -1 -10 35 -27 6 -51 -7 -24 7 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 -1 0 -6 -6 -9 0 LAND (KM) 777 830 891 946 995 1053 1060 1021 961 965 1042 1148 1264 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.9 64.5 64.8 65.1 64.9 64.2 63.5 63.0 63.2 64.0 64.2 63.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 6 4 2 3 4 2 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 54 43 34 24 21 16 18 23 33 31 19 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. -3. -9. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.0 63.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.53 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 288.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 8.1% 6.3% 4.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.8% 5.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 55 56 57 55 54 47 41 38 39 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 53 54 52 51 44 38 35 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 48 49 47 46 39 33 30 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 42 40 39 32 26 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT