* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 45 40 32 28 26 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 45 40 32 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 41 41 40 39 34 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 25 27 28 26 34 41 48 46 48 35 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 353 356 356 356 355 353 342 335 346 2 15 13 4 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 156 154 153 148 144 141 144 143 140 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 137 133 131 124 120 118 120 119 117 116 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 53 55 57 58 58 56 52 48 49 49 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 10 10 12 13 16 16 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -99 -97 -105 -100 -64 -18 -4 -10 -11 -36 -28 -13 200 MB DIV -38 -25 -13 -1 2 -17 7 0 -26 -35 -56 -24 8 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -3 1 1 1 -2 -2 -8 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 778 826 884 927 974 1057 1124 1110 1083 1107 1204 1275 1296 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.2 28.1 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.8 28.8 29.6 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.1 63.8 64.3 64.8 65.0 64.3 63.4 62.5 62.1 62.3 62.8 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 8 7 6 3 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 49 39 29 21 17 15 20 25 26 22 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 2. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -13. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.7 62.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.04 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 262.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.5% 4.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.5% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 45 40 32 28 26 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 39 31 27 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 42 41 41 36 28 24 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 36 35 35 30 22 18 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT