* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 35 29 26 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 35 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 39 38 37 36 34 30 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 29 26 26 29 32 31 32 46 40 48 40 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -2 -8 -5 -1 -6 0 -1 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 339 350 355 352 354 355 348 346 342 357 13 24 20 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 158 154 152 147 143 142 142 142 141 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 140 136 132 123 118 118 118 117 118 116 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 55 56 57 57 51 48 47 48 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 11 11 9 10 11 13 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -89 -98 -94 -105 -105 -35 -7 2 -9 -43 -55 -35 200 MB DIV -26 -33 -23 -4 -5 6 -11 18 -21 2 -64 -15 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 2 0 1 0 5 0 7 -1 LAND (KM) 789 814 851 898 953 1062 1123 1122 1085 1100 1173 1260 1379 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.0 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.9 28.5 29.3 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.1 64.7 64.4 63.8 63.1 62.6 62.3 62.2 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 4 2 3 3 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 54 48 38 25 16 14 18 20 22 23 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -24. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 0. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -10. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.3 61.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 257.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 35 29 26 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 44 43 42 41 41 40 35 29 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 40 39 38 38 37 32 26 23 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 33 32 32 31 26 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT