* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 45 42 39 35 31 25 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 45 42 39 35 31 25 19 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 47 45 41 37 34 31 27 23 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 38 33 34 34 36 36 39 49 62 57 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 -2 -1 -7 -6 -10 -14 -3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 318 327 340 349 353 345 347 343 349 358 7 17 17 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 156 151 144 142 142 145 148 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 140 138 130 120 115 117 121 123 127 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 53 56 57 57 58 58 60 55 49 45 44 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -86 -85 -93 -102 -111 -96 -52 -32 -20 -33 -51 -3 200 MB DIV -25 -21 -33 -27 -16 -8 -9 -13 0 -47 -28 -33 26 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -1 1 0 -2 2 1 1 0 3 6 21 LAND (KM) 809 816 827 848 878 1015 1120 1149 1135 1071 1004 984 990 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.5 26.0 27.5 28.6 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.3 61.9 62.6 63.3 64.3 64.7 64.7 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.9 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 51 50 43 18 13 12 14 17 19 19 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -33. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -26. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.9 60.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 45 42 39 35 31 25 19 15 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 40 37 33 29 23 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 37 34 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 32 29 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT