* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 50 49 48 45 42 38 32 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 50 49 48 45 42 38 32 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 51 54 53 51 46 41 38 34 30 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 35 37 36 38 35 43 39 49 56 59 59 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 -3 0 -10 -4 -6 -8 -4 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 322 320 330 343 348 339 341 334 340 342 359 5 11 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 159 155 148 141 138 135 138 144 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 144 143 138 128 119 115 111 116 124 124 127 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 57 56 60 58 52 46 43 44 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -92 -93 -90 -108 -110 -95 -29 -26 -19 -26 -52 -40 200 MB DIV -25 -31 -27 -40 -17 -14 16 -8 -23 -28 -34 -25 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -2 0 -3 1 4 2 -1 -2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 827 818 818 858 913 1053 1207 1337 1402 1339 1142 1062 1072 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 10 8 7 6 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 46 50 42 18 16 20 14 19 23 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -26. -33. -41. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.5 60.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 50 49 48 45 42 38 32 25 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 43 40 37 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 36 33 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT