* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 54 54 44 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 54 54 44 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 56 52 39 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 34 38 47 53 73 73 73 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 12 15 15 1 0 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 223 221 230 240 261 290 313 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.1 21.6 19.3 17.9 19.3 17.5 17.1 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 94 86 82 86 81 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 90 82 79 82 78 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -52.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 36 32 32 35 37 40 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 27 31 28 21 28 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 38 71 112 127 28 -1 -31 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 80 71 39 56 -20 -53 -51 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -46 -3 31 42 66 79 64 79 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 260 332 335 357 831 1404 783 444 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.8 40.3 42.0 43.6 45.9 47.1 47.3 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 71.0 66.9 61.3 55.7 42.2 28.2 18.3 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 35 40 45 47 49 41 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 22 CX,CY: 20/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -16. -31. -45. -56. -67. -76. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 4. -3. 3. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -1. -11. -29. -38. -69. -83. -95.-106.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.3 75.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 55 54 54 44 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 52 42 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT