* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 46 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 46 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 43 42 41 35 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 37 44 52 68 88 86 82 67 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 11 14 5 -7 0 14 12 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 224 217 219 230 249 278 305 318 325 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 23.9 23.8 20.7 17.7 10.0 15.5 16.6 16.6 17.3 18.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 103 104 90 82 73 78 79 76 73 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 96 99 86 79 72 75 75 71 68 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -52.6 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 33 31 32 37 44 49 48 45 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 22 24 27 21 21 14 7 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 52 95 123 82 25 -7 -42 -58 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 56 91 86 71 26 -50 -66 -30 -12 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -53 -37 -5 27 81 70 146 89 83 35 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -158 85 217 294 267 331 1341 977 480 276 207 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.9 39.2 40.9 42.6 45.6 47.5 48.2 47.9 46.9 45.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.7 74.4 71.0 66.1 61.3 49.1 34.9 22.6 13.3 8.0 6.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 30 35 40 43 48 45 36 25 13 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 20 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -26. -46. -62. -73. -84. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. -1. -3. -11. -22. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -10. -24. -52. -81. -86.-100.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.5 77.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 47 46 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 45 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 41 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT