* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 36 34 36 39 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 34 36 39 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 33 32 33 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 25 29 32 49 61 76 68 66 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 6 8 9 10 0 8 6 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 231 220 226 214 234 254 272 297 315 326 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 26.1 23.8 23.7 17.9 9.9 16.5 16.6 16.2 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 120 103 104 82 73 80 79 76 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 110 96 98 79 72 76 76 73 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -50.7 -52.0 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 40 35 35 32 33 40 37 41 46 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 23 24 31 23 21 28 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 22 19 49 115 87 48 28 -3 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 43 54 66 96 48 26 -39 -48 -37 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -22 -17 -42 -34 42 35 -14 34 91 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -210 -191 -138 99 219 287 320 1224 1031 399 68 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.4 36.6 38.0 39.3 42.5 45.4 47.3 48.4 48.8 49.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 79.6 77.5 74.1 70.7 61.0 49.4 36.5 23.6 13.3 5.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 26 30 35 42 45 44 39 30 26 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -16. -30. -44. -55. -64. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -13. -13. -9. -6. -3. -1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. 3. -6. -9. -1. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -9. -6. -4. -20. -33. -38. -66. -75. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.1 81.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.16 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 34 36 39 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 41 43 46 48 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT