* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 33 26 23 23 32 38 29 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 34 43 49 40 30 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 31 32 31 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 22 22 29 43 49 68 77 77 63 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 0 3 6 7 14 0 -1 9 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 236 233 228 223 220 248 264 290 305 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.5 26.5 24.0 21.2 17.1 17.8 15.6 15.0 15.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 134 124 104 92 81 82 78 76 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 121 122 114 97 88 78 78 75 73 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -50.9 -50.3 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 47 41 37 35 31 36 41 42 45 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 24 20 21 23 30 24 21 28 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 23 11 12 89 122 39 50 28 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 19 43 60 71 64 53 -4 -49 -41 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 -8 -28 -19 -38 5 28 85 65 92 47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -225 -184 -168 -97 100 303 322 773 1403 597 222 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.5 37.8 40.8 43.9 46.6 48.9 49.8 49.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.2 81.5 79.7 76.9 74.2 66.0 55.3 42.7 29.5 18.0 8.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 23 26 30 39 44 46 41 34 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 17 CX,CY: 11/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -27. -40. -53. -61. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -19. -27. -30. -29. -20. -14. -8. -2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. 1. -6. -10. -2. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -17. -24. -27. -27. -18. -12. -21. -31. -33. -56. -62. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.8 83.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -85.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 34 43 49 40 30 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 43 52 58 49 39 37 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 46 55 61 52 42 40 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 52 58 49 39 37 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT