* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 70 70 68 64 56 47 32 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 57 44 36 32 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 56 43 36 32 35 38 36 29 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 17 19 32 50 64 80 74 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 -2 2 7 7 9 8 -3 8 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 236 232 225 210 218 235 253 274 295 305 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.4 26.5 23.4 18.5 10.7 16.4 14.5 16.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 136 133 124 102 84 73 79 77 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 122 120 113 96 80 72 76 74 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -50.2 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 47 41 34 32 32 41 39 40 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 26 25 26 28 32 28 27 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 7 22 27 17 44 126 93 71 41 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 42 21 51 73 91 44 16 -38 -37 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 -4 -12 0 -32 24 30 65 53 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -157 -205 -191 -173 -116 229 279 303 1165 1082 322 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.8 34.0 35.3 36.5 39.2 42.6 45.6 47.9 49.1 49.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 83.0 81.5 79.3 77.2 70.7 60.9 49.5 37.2 24.9 12.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 22 25 35 42 44 42 40 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -15. -23. -29. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -29. -38. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -9. -12. -12. -11. -8. -7. -6. -3. 1. 5. 7. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. -6. -8. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -10. -10. -12. -16. -24. -33. -48. -61. -77. -80. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.5 84.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.05 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 566.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 57 44 36 32 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 66 58 54 54 45 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 64 64 55 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 66 57 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT