* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 131 124 115 98 79 67 40 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 135 93 64 48 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 135 93 63 47 38 35 42 44 38 31 24 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 16 20 22 41 52 80 89 76 66 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 1 -2 1 11 7 19 4 1 16 13 19 SHEAR DIR 194 209 231 233 224 212 224 243 259 282 291 297 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.6 24.3 19.4 15.9 12.8 15.2 15.9 15.3 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 135 135 106 85 79 75 77 76 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 128 120 122 99 81 76 73 75 73 69 67 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 58 51 47 40 31 30 33 39 34 47 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 26 24 26 32 28 26 25 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 31 13 21 29 15 70 136 97 91 63 14 57 200 MB DIV 68 74 53 29 54 117 42 57 36 -10 -11 25 30 700-850 TADV 4 4 7 0 -11 -8 29 93 123 166 89 143 76 LAND (KM) -10 -145 -226 -177 -165 76 279 272 488 1342 973 439 129 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.4 32.6 33.7 34.8 37.2 40.6 44.0 47.0 48.8 49.3 49.8 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 84.4 83.3 81.7 80.2 74.9 67.4 57.9 46.4 34.7 23.4 15.4 10.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 21 29 36 41 42 39 31 21 17 HEAT CONTENT 28 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -22. -37. -55. -73. -88. -98.-105.-112. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -33. -38. -39. -40. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. 0. -6. -9. -10. -24. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -4. -11. -20. -37. -56. -68. -95.-117.-133.-157.-162. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 30.2 85.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 828.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -14.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 93 64 48 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 105 89 80 72 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 12HR AGO 135 132 131 115 106 98 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 116 108 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 108 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 IN 6HR 135 93 84 78 75 72 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT