* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 126 122 115 105 90 73 57 31 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 127 82 58 45 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 125 84 58 44 32 36 40 38 32 29 23 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 15 19 18 35 50 66 95 91 82 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 2 -3 8 5 12 14 -2 4 13 16 SHEAR DIR 275 223 215 229 239 216 220 241 244 268 284 283 286 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.5 24.1 19.5 13.8 15.7 13.5 13.6 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 148 149 141 135 105 86 76 78 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 131 132 126 123 98 82 74 75 72 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 62 57 51 46 33 30 28 33 37 45 64 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 30 28 26 25 26 25 28 22 31 31 18 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 40 16 21 26 43 107 153 136 121 92 87 200 MB DIV 45 69 50 23 30 101 64 33 67 14 -11 -4 26 700-850 TADV 19 2 5 13 -1 -1 -26 40 97 190 195 102 175 LAND (KM) 117 10 -125 -242 -200 -144 206 216 135 785 1380 720 269 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.3 33.4 35.7 38.3 41.7 45.5 48.6 50.5 51.8 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 85.6 84.9 83.6 82.4 78.2 72.5 64.5 54.0 42.3 30.0 20.8 14.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 16 18 24 31 39 43 42 35 25 20 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -24. -40. -55. -69. -79. -87. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -31. -37. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -3. -5. -2. -11. -1. -2. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -10. -20. -35. -52. -68. -94. -99.-114.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 29.0 86.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 734.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.5% 7.3% 7.5% 3.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 127 82 58 45 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 79 55 42 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 97 84 71 64 39 39 39 39 39 39 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 102 89 82 57 57 57 57 57 57 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 93 86 61 61 61 61 61 61 IN 6HR 125 127 118 112 109 103 96 71 71 71 71 71 71 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT