* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 115 111 102 90 80 67 47 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 80 57 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 116 115 82 57 36 30 36 36 32 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 12 11 14 20 26 35 40 59 80 81 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 2 3 0 8 9 15 9 6 14 14 SHEAR DIR 296 284 236 238 237 214 220 222 244 240 265 276 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 27.8 26.3 22.9 18.8 11.9 15.0 13.6 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 146 148 149 137 122 98 84 74 76 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 128 130 132 123 112 93 81 73 74 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 59 52 42 33 30 28 36 41 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 32 32 30 28 24 27 26 22 15 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 57 41 14 27 31 44 110 103 70 91 108 200 MB DIV 40 43 65 44 24 77 98 64 84 59 23 30 28 700-850 TADV 24 18 4 4 6 -14 -19 -38 59 55 152 205 152 LAND (KM) 241 122 33 -108 -215 -177 -33 277 288 230 991 1340 697 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.0 32.0 34.3 36.5 39.3 42.6 45.8 48.7 50.7 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.2 85.8 84.8 83.9 80.8 76.2 69.5 60.6 50.4 39.5 29.5 20.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 15 19 26 34 39 40 36 31 29 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 27 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -28. -40. -53. -62. -70. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -22. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -5. -6. -13. -22. -24. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -25. -35. -48. -68. -90.-106.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.8 86.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 0( 52) 0( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 7( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 116 80 57 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 78 55 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 75 52 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 82 61 55 48 25 25 25 25 25 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 75 69 62 39 39 39 39 39 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 89 83 76 53 53 53 53 53 IN 12HR 115 116 116 107 101 97 91 84 61 61 61 61 61