* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 113 113 111 103 96 84 73 59 37 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 112 113 113 80 44 32 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 114 113 110 81 43 32 34 37 36 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 9 11 15 18 31 45 50 79 86 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 2 1 6 5 13 13 4 6 17 SHEAR DIR 276 289 270 234 232 233 208 217 238 246 260 274 279 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.7 25.4 21.7 16.4 13.3 14.4 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 149 148 148 145 137 114 93 79 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 127 131 129 130 129 124 106 88 77 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.4 -51.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 3 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 66 61 51 38 33 29 33 41 42 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 31 30 27 27 24 26 26 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 42 51 65 48 27 26 36 81 129 90 92 121 200 MB DIV 45 48 43 50 29 46 99 68 54 87 25 40 36 700-850 TADV 20 21 16 0 5 2 -18 -43 40 50 176 235 217 LAND (KM) 361 246 136 18 -91 -180 -130 179 324 333 576 1337 1028 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.8 30.8 32.9 35.0 37.6 40.6 43.9 47.1 49.4 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.3 86.2 85.6 85.0 82.6 78.8 73.3 65.9 56.4 45.2 34.7 25.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 17 22 29 36 40 40 34 31 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 27 27 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -32. -43. -52. -59. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. -18. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -16. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -14. -26. -37. -51. -73. -92.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 26.6 86.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.2% 21.6% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 20.2% 13.4% 8.0% 4.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 22.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.4% 15.0% 11.7% 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 0( 50) 0( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 1( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 113 113 80 44 32 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 110 110 77 41 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 73 37 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 67 31 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 55 43 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 80 68 65 53 36 36 36 36 IN 12HR 110 112 113 104 98 94 82 79 67 50 50 50 50