* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 108 108 108 102 96 86 78 65 47 26 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 109 108 108 108 57 36 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 111 111 109 106 57 36 29 35 36 32 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 9 9 14 13 25 37 41 60 84 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 2 0 1 3 6 11 15 11 4 6 SHEAR DIR 283 274 286 282 241 241 221 225 209 244 251 264 263 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.8 27.8 26.8 23.6 18.8 11.8 15.9 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 146 150 148 150 137 127 102 84 74 76 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 128 131 130 133 122 115 96 81 72 72 68 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -52.4 -53.0 -51.5 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 10 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 65 65 57 47 36 30 29 40 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 29 27 22 26 25 21 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 33 38 50 26 33 19 36 121 83 90 133 200 MB DIV 21 29 32 47 49 36 94 75 112 83 50 33 33 700-850 TADV 17 19 21 9 3 2 -5 -3 -35 48 50 149 164 LAND (KM) 404 357 239 130 47 -195 -158 -74 276 321 240 858 1332 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 31.8 34.0 36.2 38.8 42.0 45.9 48.8 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.3 86.3 86.1 85.9 83.8 80.8 76.7 70.5 61.6 50.2 41.3 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 12 15 19 24 33 42 39 28 23 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 27 26 26 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -25. -34. -43. -50. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -5. -7. -11. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -10. -7. -9. -15. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 3. 3. -3. -9. -19. -27. -40. -58. -79. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.5 86.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.85 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 23.9% 21.7% 13.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 10.7% 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 25.9% 7.3% 2.5% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.6% 14.0% 9.9% 6.8% 4.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 28( 47) 28( 62) 0( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 6( 27) 8( 33) 0( 33) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 109 108 108 108 57 36 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 103 103 52 31 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 101 50 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 44 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 109 100 94 91 68 47 41 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 109 108 99 93 89 68 62 58 32 32 32 32