* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 95 96 96 89 83 74 65 50 30 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 95 96 64 39 31 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 95 97 97 96 66 38 30 34 36 34 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 14 9 12 14 17 29 39 57 88 93 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 4 6 3 0 0 6 8 14 8 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 302 285 277 287 276 238 235 216 216 229 242 260 271 SST (C) 28.8 29.3 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.5 25.8 21.0 15.2 13.0 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 158 147 145 149 149 138 134 118 91 77 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 143 131 127 131 132 123 120 108 86 75 72 71 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 65 67 64 57 47 36 31 37 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 30 32 28 26 24 25 22 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR 61 54 46 24 33 41 22 8 29 78 115 67 103 200 MB DIV 26 33 25 25 40 31 30 96 86 69 71 32 29 700-850 TADV 26 22 16 11 10 9 -18 -15 -21 -15 -39 81 162 LAND (KM) 306 401 319 215 118 -131 -172 -113 212 312 245 546 1243 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.8 27.0 28.0 28.9 31.2 33.6 35.6 37.7 40.7 44.6 47.8 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.3 86.5 86.3 86.2 84.8 81.8 77.8 72.8 65.3 55.5 45.5 36.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 15 18 21 28 37 39 36 34 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 31 27 26 4 2 2 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -18. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -6. -9. -9. -14. -22. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. -1. -7. -16. -25. -40. -60. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 24.6 86.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.6% 25.6% 21.4% 15.9% 12.7% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 22.1% 14.4% 11.7% 7.5% 8.2% 4.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 22.9% 19.2% 6.1% 13.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.0% 22.3% 13.9% 13.7% 7.3% 7.3% 1.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 19( 42) 0( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 9( 13) 3( 15) 0( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 96 95 96 64 39 31 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 90 91 59 34 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 86 54 29 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 49 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 43 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 94 96 87 81 77 52 44 41 32 DIS DIS DIS