* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 86 85 87 83 78 72 68 54 38 23 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 86 85 75 43 32 30 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 86 86 86 44 32 33 36 35 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 16 12 14 16 11 14 13 24 40 46 65 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 -2 1 2 5 12 11 10 5 SHEAR DIR 291 293 291 281 281 243 250 232 229 219 236 246 260 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.6 27.8 24.9 22.8 19.1 12.6 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 154 147 146 150 148 138 110 98 84 73 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 138 131 130 133 131 124 101 92 80 71 73 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.8 -52.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 67 65 71 62 52 40 33 33 42 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 27 30 27 24 22 25 20 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 53 45 23 44 24 22 19 52 110 80 52 200 MB DIV 7 26 36 33 22 47 30 87 71 105 69 52 49 700-850 TADV 25 24 20 17 13 3 0 -17 -34 -37 -26 -6 93 LAND (KM) 196 303 413 347 233 -10 -218 -119 85 286 276 192 814 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.7 27.8 30.2 32.4 34.6 37.0 39.8 43.0 46.2 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.1 86.4 86.4 86.4 85.5 83.3 79.7 74.9 68.1 59.6 50.7 41.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 16 21 27 33 36 34 33 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 44 38 30 34 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -7. -14. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 5. 7. 3. -2. -8. -12. -26. -42. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 23.6 85.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 20.8% 17.6% 13.6% 11.7% 13.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 16.4% 10.6% 9.9% 6.4% 8.8% 6.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 9.8% 9.1% 2.8% 6.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 15.4% 10.3% 9.9% 6.6% 7.4% 5.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 21.0% 49.0% 46.0% 29.0% 23.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 9( 10) 1( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 85 86 85 75 43 32 30 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 82 83 82 72 40 29 27 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 76 66 34 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 59 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 85 76 70 66 34 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS