* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 81 80 82 77 72 66 57 47 29 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 81 80 54 35 29 30 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 79 80 81 81 81 55 35 29 33 35 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 19 17 16 15 14 13 22 30 49 61 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 2 0 1 0 2 5 9 15 17 3 SHEAR DIR 286 287 289 286 278 272 240 255 210 213 227 240 255 SST (C) 29.8 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.1 27.4 24.1 20.8 15.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 154 149 152 147 146 150 141 133 105 90 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 140 135 136 131 128 133 124 121 98 85 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.3 -52.2 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 8 3 3 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 69 68 70 68 58 44 35 31 40 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 27 26 28 25 22 22 23 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 90 70 57 55 45 31 45 26 21 27 95 118 93 200 MB DIV 28 8 30 41 27 55 35 34 95 104 81 76 59 700-850 TADV 25 23 21 26 21 10 13 1 -24 -41 10 45 144 LAND (KM) 98 200 314 398 337 110 -139 -172 -148 206 247 246 583 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.8 26.8 29.1 31.3 33.4 35.6 38.3 41.4 44.6 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.7 86.1 86.3 86.4 86.3 84.7 82.0 78.4 72.5 64.5 55.0 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 17 23 31 36 38 38 HEAT CONTENT 53 31 33 42 37 29 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -9. -15. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 7. 2. -3. -9. -18. -28. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.7 85.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 21.6% 18.1% 13.9% 12.0% 13.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 16.5% 10.3% 9.5% 5.9% 7.6% 5.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 7.9% 12.3% 3.6% 7.8% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 16.8% 10.7% 10.4% 6.9% 7.0% 5.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 7( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 8( 13) 1( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 81 81 80 54 35 29 30 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 77 76 50 31 25 26 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 71 45 26 20 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 64 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT