* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 77 79 80 80 81 77 74 68 67 57 38 V (KT) LAND 70 75 77 79 80 80 81 46 33 29 30 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 80 80 81 82 46 33 29 35 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 22 16 13 16 16 18 17 31 49 71 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 3 3 4 -2 -2 2 5 12 11 18 SHEAR DIR 295 288 289 301 294 294 259 260 236 222 217 237 225 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.4 28.7 29.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.1 26.3 23.4 20.2 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 165 158 147 152 146 148 152 141 121 100 87 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 151 143 132 136 129 130 135 126 111 92 82 74 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 65 66 68 69 62 51 36 31 30 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 27 26 25 27 24 23 21 27 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 70 66 56 14 43 21 37 31 64 166 172 200 MB DIV 55 54 25 29 12 31 34 42 103 73 126 64 79 700-850 TADV 19 21 22 15 22 17 12 12 -7 -23 7 37 4 LAND (KM) 33 100 166 270 374 257 19 -195 -158 -41 251 297 296 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 27.5 29.7 31.8 34.1 36.5 39.1 41.5 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.3 85.4 85.8 86.2 86.2 85.6 83.8 80.7 76.3 70.4 63.1 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 15 19 24 28 32 34 HEAT CONTENT 108 53 34 29 39 31 30 2 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -4. -8. -16. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -4. -3. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 7. 4. -2. -3. -13. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.7 85.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.33 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.0% 34.1% 24.4% 19.1% 14.5% 14.3% 11.4% 12.8% Logistic: 13.2% 18.4% 13.8% 10.1% 4.3% 6.4% 6.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 9.3% 7.8% 5.7% 11.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 16.2% 20.1% 14.7% 13.4% 7.5% 7.2% 6.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 53.0% 71.0% 67.0% 55.0% 34.0% 28.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 7( 16) 7( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 1( 5) 9( 14) 2( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 77 79 80 80 81 46 33 29 30 21 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 71 73 74 74 75 40 27 23 24 15 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 69 69 70 35 22 18 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 61 62 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT