* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 81 83 87 86 83 78 69 65 54 34 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 81 83 87 86 69 41 31 32 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 84 87 86 68 40 31 32 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 13 19 15 14 14 12 15 25 44 66 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 4 3 1 7 2 10 5 0 10 SHEAR DIR 287 293 273 279 300 294 302 249 252 233 233 242 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.5 27.8 25.3 23.5 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 165 155 146 150 147 151 146 138 113 101 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 151 140 131 133 129 132 129 124 103 94 82 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 5 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 63 67 66 66 60 50 37 27 26 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 28 28 29 28 27 24 19 23 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR 75 80 85 69 74 43 24 37 26 28 51 -4 70 200 MB DIV 63 61 41 17 30 19 47 47 38 48 31 -14 28 700-850 TADV 14 14 19 17 16 28 12 16 1 3 -11 -67 -82 LAND (KM) 105 41 108 188 282 388 166 -51 -178 -86 138 340 368 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.4 26.2 28.3 30.3 32.3 34.4 36.8 39.3 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.6 86.0 86.3 86.0 84.9 82.9 79.4 74.3 67.9 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 16 21 26 30 33 HEAT CONTENT 106 96 47 31 30 41 28 9 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -7. -9. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 16. 18. 22. 21. 18. 13. 4. 0. -11. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.9 85.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 13.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.39 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 6.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.1% 54.5% 40.0% 36.5% 31.0% 27.2% 14.2% 18.3% Logistic: 17.4% 27.9% 19.3% 9.2% 4.2% 10.7% 5.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 15.6% 15.8% 9.9% 19.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 24.4% 32.7% 23.0% 21.7% 12.7% 13.2% 6.8% 6.7% DTOPS: 42.0% 67.0% 58.0% 57.0% 42.0% 52.0% 32.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 9( 16) 10( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 1( 3) 8( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 78 81 83 87 86 69 41 31 32 21 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 70 73 75 79 78 61 33 23 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 66 70 69 52 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 61 60 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT