* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 71 74 74 77 82 78 74 71 67 54 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 71 74 74 77 82 51 35 33 29 16 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 72 75 77 77 77 79 51 34 29 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 12 16 18 15 15 8 16 14 20 38 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 3 3 4 0 2 0 2 7 11 13 SHEAR DIR 300 302 313 295 297 302 301 280 270 267 234 215 236 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.3 26.6 23.8 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 158 153 151 155 146 144 147 145 126 104 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 144 138 136 138 129 126 130 132 117 98 81 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 65 63 65 66 69 59 50 38 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 27 27 28 26 27 29 26 22 21 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 74 79 69 53 20 41 13 22 5 44 153 200 MB DIV 44 67 55 38 7 31 23 51 17 89 87 90 94 700-850 TADV 15 12 17 22 21 22 25 10 27 7 -8 26 -3 LAND (KM) 165 129 104 141 206 374 286 58 -126 -115 0 336 346 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.6 23.4 25.1 27.2 29.2 31.2 33.5 36.0 38.9 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.6 85.8 85.9 86.0 86.5 86.1 85.2 84.0 80.9 75.9 68.9 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 14 21 28 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 60 30 31 45 32 29 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 1. -4. -6. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 14. 14. 17. 22. 18. 14. 11. 7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 85.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 22.0% 17.7% 12.8% 10.6% 13.2% 12.2% 18.8% Logistic: 5.7% 16.1% 9.5% 5.4% 2.3% 5.8% 4.0% 7.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 7.3% 13.2% 9.3% 6.3% 4.3% 6.4% 5.4% 8.6% DTOPS: 56.0% 91.0% 91.0% 83.0% 60.0% 92.0% 89.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 69 71 74 74 77 82 51 35 33 29 16 18HR AGO 60 59 64 66 69 69 72 77 46 30 28 24 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 61 61 64 69 38 22 20 16 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 53 56 61 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT