* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 69 75 76 80 76 71 65 58 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 69 75 76 80 50 34 33 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 58 63 67 71 75 49 34 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 20 14 12 19 15 16 10 15 19 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 6 5 1 2 2 -1 0 4 4 8 SHEAR DIR 297 288 288 286 283 296 315 300 281 272 243 232 232 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.0 29.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 26.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 164 169 165 149 151 155 147 146 147 146 123 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 150 155 152 136 136 138 130 129 132 132 113 100 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 65 64 63 68 68 59 45 31 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 22 24 25 26 27 25 28 26 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 80 80 72 60 50 29 46 18 25 32 38 200 MB DIV 60 45 25 43 48 23 35 49 60 41 101 66 70 700-850 TADV 2 4 9 13 12 24 23 20 12 18 13 -9 39 LAND (KM) 128 129 120 73 76 226 420 302 67 -149 -105 18 381 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.0 21.8 23.5 25.3 27.2 29.1 31.3 33.6 36.0 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.2 86.1 86.2 86.3 86.6 87.0 86.6 85.5 83.5 80.5 75.7 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 12 16 20 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 54 59 61 50 30 30 71 34 27 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 29. 35. 36. 40. 36. 31. 25. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 86.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.32 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 21.5% 17.2% 11.9% 9.6% 12.4% 12.0% 20.9% Logistic: 4.9% 12.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.2% 4.7% 5.3% 10.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 3.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 5.3% 12.5% 8.4% 5.5% 3.7% 5.8% 5.8% 10.5% DTOPS: 10.0% 46.0% 34.0% 22.0% 8.0% 18.0% 26.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 56 61 69 75 76 80 50 34 33 26 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 55 63 69 70 74 44 28 27 20 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 55 61 62 66 36 20 19 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 43 49 50 54 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT