* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 40 45 51 58 64 66 71 68 64 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 40 45 51 58 64 66 55 36 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 49 53 46 33 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 20 16 18 16 8 9 15 20 28 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 4 4 3 2 4 6 4 1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 293 278 259 273 279 293 306 271 261 223 244 229 231 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.1 29.8 28.8 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.7 28.1 27.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 164 170 165 147 154 155 150 144 149 141 133 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 150 156 150 133 139 139 131 127 133 127 120 92 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 9 8 10 8 9 8 9 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 63 62 61 62 64 65 64 50 33 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 18 22 25 25 27 27 26 29 25 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 75 83 84 77 55 43 28 38 29 30 49 200 MB DIV 53 47 47 47 64 43 35 29 62 58 50 52 60 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 13 16 15 24 20 5 15 0 10 -37 LAND (KM) 64 75 80 47 61 189 383 307 198 -86 -200 -181 160 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.7 23.2 25.0 26.9 28.6 30.9 33.4 36.0 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 86.7 86.5 86.5 86.4 86.9 87.3 87.4 87.0 85.3 82.4 78.4 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 10 9 11 16 19 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 50 40 29 28 87 36 26 9 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 7. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 28. 34. 36. 41. 38. 34. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 86.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.73 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 12.3% 9.2% 6.0% 4.1% 7.8% 7.5% 19.7% Logistic: 1.7% 5.9% 2.7% 1.9% 0.6% 3.4% 3.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 2.2% 6.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.6% 3.7% 3.8% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 31.0% 80.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 40 45 51 58 64 66 55 36 30 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 36 41 47 54 60 62 51 32 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 42 49 55 57 46 27 21 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 31 38 44 46 35 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT