* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 54 59 63 66 64 61 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 54 59 63 66 39 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 43 44 46 49 52 35 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 19 20 20 22 18 18 10 12 14 20 33 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 3 3 -2 1 -1 3 -1 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 289 288 279 268 276 289 298 294 287 263 239 225 224 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.7 27.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 156 149 148 153 148 142 147 151 132 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 142 134 133 137 131 125 132 137 120 90 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 64 62 60 60 59 60 60 53 33 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 19 21 23 24 23 24 25 23 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 69 72 83 73 65 44 12 30 0 22 22 200 MB DIV 52 40 47 59 59 47 29 37 64 53 16 76 60 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 7 16 7 21 19 26 9 13 -16 -84 LAND (KM) 63 68 73 55 41 113 310 382 220 43 -294 -309 -44 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.4 24.3 26.1 27.8 30.1 33.0 36.3 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.5 86.5 86.9 87.4 87.6 86.5 83.9 80.2 75.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 10 15 20 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 52 50 42 25 41 58 35 27 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 34. 31. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 87.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 6.3% 18.1% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 2.2% 3.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 2.9% 7.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% 8.0% 58.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 42 49 54 59 63 66 39 31 29 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 39 46 51 56 60 63 36 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 45 50 54 57 30 22 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 36 41 45 48 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT