* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 42 49 55 58 61 58 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 42 49 55 58 61 41 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 24 23 23 20 16 13 12 15 22 36 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 266 274 278 273 270 287 271 295 278 258 239 228 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 157 153 144 151 150 144 143 149 139 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 144 141 138 130 135 132 127 127 132 122 109 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -51.7 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 10 9 10 8 9 8 6 0 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 65 61 60 59 63 63 55 35 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 16 22 25 24 24 25 22 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 66 64 68 72 72 47 54 38 48 38 -6 200 MB DIV 88 43 14 21 45 49 42 45 50 52 49 18 23 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 6 9 10 27 21 17 26 -12 -17 LAND (KM) 103 93 84 73 43 78 257 441 260 94 -207 -330 -311 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 22.1 23.8 25.5 27.3 29.6 32.2 34.7 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.5 86.6 86.7 87.1 87.6 87.1 85.4 82.9 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 13 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 54 53 48 24 32 84 36 25 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 5. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 17. 24. 30. 33. 36. 33. 27. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 86.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.33 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.77 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.1% 10.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 5.8% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 18.0% 4.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 42 49 55 58 61 41 31 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 40 47 53 56 59 39 29 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 35 42 48 51 54 34 24 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 26 33 39 42 45 25 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT