* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 55 47 56 51 44 37 30 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 55 47 56 51 44 37 30 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 59 55 54 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 33 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 339 327 311 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 22.8 22.1 20.4 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 98 95 89 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 92 90 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 6 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -38 -40 -17 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 25 34 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 48 27 -26 -117 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 869 766 820 1070 1371 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 41.1 43.1 45.3 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 47.6 44.0 39.3 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 34 37 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -18. -9. -14. -21. -28. -35. -41. -46. -50. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 39.0 51.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 417.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.53 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 60 55 47 56 51 44 37 30 24 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 51 60 55 48 41 34 28 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 53 62 57 50 43 36 30 25 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 64 59 52 45 38 32 27 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT