* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 51 44 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 51 44 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 65 59 53 50 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 34 33 36 32 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 -2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 1 336 325 312 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.1 22.5 22.0 20.0 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 112 96 95 86 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 90 89 81 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 54 56 54 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 13 11 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -27 -25 -28 -7 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 32 45 42 32 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 34 49 32 -6 10 -147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1044 853 748 815 1011 1472 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 39.2 41.1 43.3 45.4 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 50.8 47.9 43.9 40.0 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 30 33 36 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 20 CX,CY: 13/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -11. -16. -22. -29. -33. -37. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -26. -32. -40. -48. -56. -62. -68. -73. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.3 53.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 471.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 55.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 64 58 51 44 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 63 56 49 43 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 52 46 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 47 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT