* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 57 52 47 54 49 43 38 34 30 26 21 V (KT) LAND 70 63 57 52 47 54 49 43 38 34 30 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 55 53 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 41 34 35 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 0 0 -2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 6 360 337 320 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.2 22.5 21.6 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 113 97 93 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 104 91 88 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 56 57 54 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 15 13 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -108 -51 0 0 37 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 38 40 44 45 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 35 55 45 6 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1170 1044 865 748 793 1338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 37.3 39.0 41.1 43.2 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 53.5 51.5 47.9 44.3 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 29 34 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -23. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -40. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.6 55.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 509.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/29/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 63 57 52 47 54 49 43 38 34 30 26 21 18HR AGO 70 69 63 58 53 60 55 49 44 40 36 32 27 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 56 63 58 52 47 43 39 35 30 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 62 57 51 46 42 38 34 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT