* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 64 57 50 37 42 35 29 26 23 20 16 V (KT) LAND 80 72 64 57 50 37 42 35 29 26 23 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 80 73 67 61 56 50 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 41 40 33 31 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 1 2 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 4 8 3 339 288 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.2 22.7 20.7 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 119 113 97 90 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 108 103 91 85 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 5 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 51 56 58 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 14 13 13 10 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -139 -137 -54 -37 -15 -11 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -4 30 25 34 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 19 30 49 34 -28 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1273 1161 1044 861 754 1055 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 35.8 37.3 39.1 40.9 45.0 49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.6 55.2 53.8 51.0 48.2 39.6 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 23 28 33 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -21. -25. -29. -33. -35. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -30. -43. -38. -45. -51. -54. -57. -60. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.3 56.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 611.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 72 64 57 50 37 42 35 29 26 23 20 16 18HR AGO 80 79 71 64 57 44 49 42 36 33 30 27 23 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 62 49 54 47 41 38 35 32 28 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 63 50 55 48 42 39 36 33 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT